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Ugyen Academy vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Paro
Paro
6/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonUgyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ugyen Academy13%
×Draw15%
Paro73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ugyen Academy
1.21
Paro
3.02

Paro creates 150% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ugyen Academy
1.67
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Ugyen Academy
2.17
Paro
0.75

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw
27%
Ugyen Academy or Paro
85%
Draw or Paro
87%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
5%
Paro wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
70%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
34%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
12%
Paro 1+ goals
95%
Paro 2+ goals
80%
Paro 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
15%
Paro (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Paro attack 3.88 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more
13%
level
15%
Paro scores more
73%

Paro at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ugyen Academy 0–3 Paro

Paro beat Ugyen Academy 3-0 in Premier League on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Ugyen Academy Football Field in Khuruthang.