Ugyen Academy 0–0 Bhutan U19: Result & Stats

Ugyen Academy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bhutan U19

8/13/2023

Premier League · Round 2Ugyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ugyen Academy47%

×Draw21%

Bhutan U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ugyen AcademyExpected goals in this matchBhutan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.71

Ugyen Academy

2.12

Bhutan U19

1.71

Ugyen Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.67

creates per match

1.26

2.17

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Ugyen Academy

1.67

Bhutan U19

1.26

allows per match

Ugyen Academy

2.17

Bhutan U19

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Bhutan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw

68%

Ugyen Academy or Bhutan U19

79%

Draw or Bhutan U19

53%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+

27%

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals

88%

Ugyen Academy 2+ goals

62%

Ugyen Academy 3+ goals

35%

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

82%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

51%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)

60%

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more

47%

level

21%

Bhutan U19 scores more

32%

Ugyen Academy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff