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UFC Hallein vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

UFC Hallein
UFC Hallein
FT
5 – 1
Adnet
Adnet
3/22/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 17Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

UFC Hallein69%
×Draw17%
Adnet14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UFC Hallein
2.59
Adnet
1.08

UFC Hallein creates 140% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

creates per match

UFC Hallein
3.11
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

UFC Hallein
0.96
Adnet
2.08

finishing

UFC Hallein+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UFC Hallein ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

UFC Hallein or draw
86%
UFC Hallein or Adnet
83%
Draw or Adnet
31%

Winning margin

UFC Hallein wins by 2+
48%
Adnet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UFC Hallein 1+ goals
92%
UFC Hallein 2+ goals
73%
UFC Hallein 3+ goals
47%
Adnet 1+ goals
66%
Adnet 2+ goals
29%
Adnet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UFC Hallein (draw refunded)
83%
Adnet (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UFC Hallein at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UFC Hallein attack 3.11 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.59

Adnet attack 1.21 + UFC Hallein defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

UFC Hallein scores more
69%
level
17%
Adnet scores more
14%

UFC Hallein at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "UFC Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UFC Hallein vs Adnet

UFC Hallein beat Adnet 5-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage in Hallein.