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UFC Fehring vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
4/24/2026Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Sportzentrum Fehring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UFC Fehring51%
×Draw22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UFC Fehring
2.01
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.41

UFC Fehring creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

UFC Fehring
2.02
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

allows per match

UFC Fehring
1.25
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.00

finishing

UFC Fehring+0.00on par
Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UFC Fehring ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

UFC Fehring or draw
73%
UFC Fehring or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
78%
Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
49%

Winning margin

UFC Fehring wins by 2+
30%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UFC Fehring 1+ goals
87%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
59%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
32%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
76%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
41%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
66%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UFC Fehring at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UFC Fehring attack 2.02 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + UFC Fehring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UFC Fehring scores more
51%
level
22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
27%

UFC Fehring at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UFC Fehring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UFC Fehring vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit

UFC Fehring and Union RB Weinland Gamlit drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Fehring in Fehring.