UFC Fehring vs TuS Heiligenkreuz

UFC Fehring

CANC

17:00

TuS Heiligenkreuz

4/12/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 21Sportzentrum Fehring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UFC Fehring53%

×Draw21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UFC FehringExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.37

UFC Fehring

2.06

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.37

UFC Fehring creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 72 away

2.02

creates per match

1.49

1.25

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

UFC Fehring

2.02

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

UFC Fehring

1.25

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UFC Fehring+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UFC Fehring ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

UFC Fehring or draw

75%

UFC Fehring or TuS Heiligenkreuz

79%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

47%

Winning margin

UFC Fehring wins by 2+

31%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UFC Fehring 1+ goals

87%

UFC Fehring 2+ goals

61%

UFC Fehring 3+ goals

34%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

75%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

40%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

UFC Fehring (draw refunded)

68%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UFC Fehring at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UFC Fehring attack 2.02 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.06

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + UFC Fehring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

UFC Fehring scores more

53%

level

21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

25%

UFC Fehring at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "UFC Fehring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff