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UFC Fehring vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
FT
4 – 0
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
4/7/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 20Sportzentrum Fehring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

UFC Fehring40%
×Draw23%
Mettersdorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UFC Fehring
1.66
Mettersdorf
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

creates per match

UFC Fehring
2.02
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

UFC Fehring
1.25
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

UFC Fehring+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UFC Fehring ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UFC Fehring or draw
64%
UFC Fehring or Mettersdorf
77%
Draw or Mettersdorf
60%

Winning margin

UFC Fehring wins by 2+
21%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UFC Fehring 1+ goals
81%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
49%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
23%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
79%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
46%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
53%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UFC Fehring at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UFC Fehring attack 2.02 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + UFC Fehring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UFC Fehring scores more
40%
level
23%
Mettersdorf scores more
36%

UFC Fehring at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UFC Fehring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UFC Fehring vs Mettersdorf

UFC Fehring beat Mettersdorf 4-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Fehring in Fehring.