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UFC Fehring vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
FT
1 – 0
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
9/23/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Sportzentrum Fehring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UFC Fehring46%
×Draw22%
Lafnitz II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UFC Fehring
1.91
Lafnitz II
1.54

UFC Fehring creates 24% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

UFC Fehring
2.02
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

UFC Fehring
1.25
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

UFC Fehring+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UFC Fehring ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

UFC Fehring or draw
69%
UFC Fehring or Lafnitz II
78%
Draw or Lafnitz II
54%

Winning margin

UFC Fehring wins by 2+
26%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

UFC Fehring 1+ goals
85%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
57%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
30%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
79%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
45%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
60%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UFC Fehring at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UFC Fehring attack 2.02 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + UFC Fehring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UFC Fehring scores more
46%
level
22%
Lafnitz II scores more
31%

UFC Fehring at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UFC Fehring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: UFC Fehring 1–0 Lafnitz II

UFC Fehring beat Lafnitz II 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Fehring in Fehring.