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Lafnitz II vs UFC Fehring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
FT
2 – 2
UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
9/14/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Lafnitz II56%
×Draw20%
UFC Fehring24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lafnitz II
2.27
UFC Fehring
1.44

Lafnitz II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 60 away

creates per match

Lafnitz II
2.49
UFC Fehring
1.50

allows per match

Lafnitz II
1.38
UFC Fehring
2.05

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par
UFC Fehring+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

UFC Fehring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw
76%
Lafnitz II or UFC Fehring
80%
Draw or UFC Fehring
44%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+
35%
UFC Fehring wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals
90%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
66%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
39%
UFC Fehring 1+ goals
76%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
42%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
70%
UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

UFC Fehring away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + UFC Fehring defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.27

UFC Fehring attack 1.50 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lafnitz II scores more
56%
level
20%
UFC Fehring scores more
24%

Lafnitz II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Lafnitz II 2–2 UFC Fehring

Lafnitz II and UFC Fehring drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lafnitz in Lafnitz.