Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ufa U20 vs Spartak Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
1 – 0
Spartak Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19
7/27/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 2BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2026%
×Draw23%
Spartak Moskva U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.25
Spartak Moskva U19
1.84

Spartak Moskva U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Spartak Moskva U19
1.58

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Spartak Moskva U19
1.42

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Spartak Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
49%
Ufa U20 or Spartak Moskva U19
77%
Draw or Spartak Moskva U19
74%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
11%
Spartak Moskva U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
71%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
36%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
13%
Spartak Moskva U19 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Moskva U19 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Moskva U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Spartak Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Spartak Moskva U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Spartak Moskva U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spartak Moskva U19 attack 1.58 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
26%
level
23%
Spartak Moskva U19 scores more
51%

Spartak Moskva U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ufa U20 1–0 Spartak Moskva U19

Ufa U20 beat Spartak Moskva U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on July 27, 2021.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.