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Ufa U20 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
1 – 0
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
11/23/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2031%
×Draw24%
Sochi U2045%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.40
Sochi U20
1.72

Sochi U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 92 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
55%
Ufa U20 or Sochi U20
76%
Draw or Sochi U20
69%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
14%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
75%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
41%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
17%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
82%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
51%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
31%
level
24%
Sochi U20 scores more
45%

Sochi U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ufa U20 vs Sochi U20

Ufa U20 beat Sochi U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.