Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ufa U20 vs Rubin Kazan U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
0 – 1
Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
10/24/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 7Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2032%
×Draw24%
Rubin Kazan U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.42
Rubin Kazan U20
1.71

Rubin Kazan U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Rubin Kazan U20
1.32

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Rubin Kazan U20
1.75

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Rubin Kazan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
56%
Ufa U20 or Rubin Kazan U20
76%
Draw or Rubin Kazan U20
68%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
15%
Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
76%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
41%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
17%
Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
82%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
51%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
42%
Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Rubin Kazan U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.32 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
32%
level
24%
Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
44%

Rubin Kazan U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rubin Kazan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ufa U20 0–1 Rubin Kazan U20

Rubin Kazan U20 beat Ufa U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.