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Ufa U20 vs Rotor Volgograd U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
1 – 1
Rotor Volgograd U20
Rotor Volgograd U20
4/3/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ufa U2032%
×Draw23%
Rotor Volgograd U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.50
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.84

Rotor Volgograd U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.57

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.93

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
54%
Ufa U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20
77%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20
68%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
15%
Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
78%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
44%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
19%
Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals
84%
Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals
55%
Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
32%
level
23%
Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more
46%

Rotor Volgograd U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ufa U20 vs Rotor Volgograd U20

Ufa U20 and Rotor Volgograd U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.