Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ufa U20 vs Orenburg U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
1 – 1
Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
8/30/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ufa U2036%
×Draw25%
Orenburg U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.45
Orenburg U20
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Orenburg U20
0.91

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Orenburg U20
1.82

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
61%
Ufa U20 or Orenburg U20
75%
Draw or Orenburg U20
64%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
17%
Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
77%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
42%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
18%
Orenburg U20 1+ goals
78%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
44%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
36%
level
25%
Orenburg U20 scores more
39%

Orenburg U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orenburg U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ufa U20 vs Orenburg U20

Ufa U20 and Orenburg U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.