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Ufa U20 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
1 – 2
Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
8/13/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2038%
×Draw24%
Nizhny Novgorod U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.58
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.12

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Nizhny Novgorod U19
2.08

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
61%
Ufa U20 or Nizhny Novgorod U19
76%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19
62%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
18%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
79%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
47%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
21%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
80%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
48%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
38%
level
24%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
39%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ufa U20 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod U19

Nizhny Novgorod U19 beat Ufa U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.