Ufa U20 0–1 Dinamo Moskva U19: Result & Stats

Ufa U20

FT

0 – 1

Dinamo Moskva U19

11/19/2021

Youth Championship · Round 16BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2031%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Moskva U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ufa U20Expected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.85

Ufa U20

1.48

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.85

Dinamo Moskva U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 82 away

1.08

creates per match

1.59

2.11

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Ufa U20

1.08

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.59

allows per match

Ufa U20

2.11

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw

54%

Ufa U20 or Dinamo Moskva U19

77%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva U19

69%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+

14%

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals

77%

Ufa U20 2+ goals

43%

Ufa U20 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Dinamo Moskva U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.59 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ufa U20 scores more

31%

level

23%

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more

46%

Dinamo Moskva U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff