UE Santa Coloma 1–1 UE Engordany: Result & Stats

UE Santa Coloma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

UE Engordany

10/23/2022

1a Divisió · Round 6Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

UE Santa Coloma54%

×Draw23%

UE Engordany22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE Santa ColomaExpected goals in this matchUE Engordany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

UE Santa Coloma

1.77

UE Engordany

1.04

UE Santa Coloma creates 70% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 50 away

1.77

creates per match

1.26

0.82

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

UE Santa Coloma

1.77

UE Engordany

1.26

allows per match

UE Santa Coloma

0.82

UE Engordany

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Santa Coloma+0.00on par

UE Engordany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Santa Coloma ↓

UE Engordany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

UE Santa Coloma or draw

78%

UE Santa Coloma or UE Engordany

77%

Draw or UE Engordany

46%

Winning margin

UE Santa Coloma wins by 2+

30%

UE Engordany wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

UE Santa Coloma 1+ goals

83%

UE Santa Coloma 2+ goals

53%

UE Santa Coloma 3+ goals

26%

UE Engordany 1+ goals

65%

UE Engordany 2+ goals

28%

UE Engordany 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UE Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

71%

UE Engordany (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Santa Coloma at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.82 · 91 matches

UE Engordany away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Santa Coloma attack 1.77 + UE Engordany defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

UE Engordany attack 1.26 + UE Santa Coloma defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

UE Santa Coloma scores more

54%

level

23%

UE Engordany scores more

22%

UE Santa Coloma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "UE Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff