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UE Santa Coloma vs Ordino — Copa Constitució 2019

UE Santa Coloma
UE Santa Colomaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ordino
Ordino
A. Baldrich 82'
Cucu 79'
E. de Pablos 17'
3/12/2026Copa ConstitucióCopa Constitució · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UE Santa Coloma71%
×Draw18%
Ordino11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Santa Coloma
2.15
Ordino
0.68

UE Santa Coloma creates 216% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

UE Santa Coloma
2.30
Ordino
0.75

allows per match

UE Santa Coloma
0.60
Ordino
2.00

finishing

UE Santa Coloma+0.00on par
Ordino+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Santa Coloma ↓

Ordino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UE Santa Coloma or draw
89%
UE Santa Coloma or Ordino
82%
Draw or Ordino
29%

Winning margin

UE Santa Coloma wins by 2+
46%
Ordino wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

UE Santa Coloma 1+ goals
88%
UE Santa Coloma 2+ goals
63%
UE Santa Coloma 3+ goals
36%
Ordino 1+ goals
49%
Ordino 2+ goals
15%
Ordino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UE Santa Coloma (draw refunded)
87%
Ordino (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Santa Coloma at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Ordino away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Santa Coloma attack 2.30 + Ordino defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ordino attack 0.75 + UE Santa Coloma defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

UE Santa Coloma scores more
71%
level
18%
Ordino scores more
11%

UE Santa Coloma at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "UE Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
E. de Pablos
79'
Cucu
82'
A. Baldrich
90'
I. Escobar
90'
I. Escobar
90+5'
M. Castells
90+5'
M. Castells

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Constitució: UE Santa Coloma 3–0 Ordino

UE Santa Coloma beat Ordino 3-0 in Copa Constitució on March 12, 2026.

Goals: E. de Pablos (17'), Cucu (79'), A. Baldrich (82').