UE Sant Julia 1–2 Penya Encarnada: Result & Stats

UE Sant Julia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Penya Encarnada

4/23/2023

1a Divisió · Round 24Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

UE Sant Julia47%

×Draw24%

Penya Encarnada29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE Sant JuliaExpected goals in this matchPenya Encarnada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.30

UE Sant Julia

1.71

Penya Encarnada

1.30

UE Sant Julia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 62 away

1.22

creates per match

0.98

1.62

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

UE Sant Julia

1.22

Penya Encarnada

0.98

allows per match

UE Sant Julia

1.62

Penya Encarnada

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Sant Julia+0.00on par

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Sant Julia ↓

Penya Encarnada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

UE Sant Julia or draw

71%

UE Sant Julia or Penya Encarnada

76%

Draw or Penya Encarnada

53%

Winning margin

UE Sant Julia wins by 2+

25%

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UE Sant Julia 1+ goals

82%

UE Sant Julia 2+ goals

51%

UE Sant Julia 3+ goals

24%

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

73%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

37%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

UE Sant Julia (draw refunded)

62%

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Sant Julia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Sant Julia attack 1.22 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Penya Encarnada attack 0.98 + UE Sant Julia defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UE Sant Julia scores more

47%

level

24%

Penya Encarnada scores more

29%

UE Sant Julia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UE Sant Julia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff