UE Sant Julia 4–2 Encamp: Result & Stats

UE Sant Julia

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Encamp

1/15/2023

Copa Constitució · 1st RoundCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UE Sant Julia87%

×Draw8%

Encamp5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE Sant JuliaExpected goals in this matchEncamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.90

1.32

UE Sant Julia

4.90

Encamp

1.32

UE Sant Julia creates 271% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.80

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

7.00

creates per match

UE Sant Julia

2.80

Encamp

1.25

allows per match

UE Sant Julia

1.40

Encamp

7.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Sant Julia+0.00on par

Encamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Sant Julia ↓

Encamp →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

UE Sant Julia or draw

95%

UE Sant Julia or Encamp

92%

Draw or Encamp

13%

Winning margin

UE Sant Julia wins by 2+

74%

Encamp wins by 2+

Team goals

UE Sant Julia 1+ goals

99%

UE Sant Julia 2+ goals

94%

UE Sant Julia 3+ goals

83%

Encamp 1+ goals

73%

Encamp 2+ goals

38%

Encamp 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

UE Sant Julia (draw refunded)

94%

Encamp (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UE Sant Julia at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Encamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 7.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UE Sant Julia attack 2.80 + Encamp defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 4.90

Encamp attack 1.25 + UE Sant Julia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

UE Sant Julia scores more

87%

level

Encamp scores more

UE Sant Julia at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "UE Sant Julia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff