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UE Engordany vs Zeta — UEFA Europa League 2018

UE Engordany
UE Engordany
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Zeta
Zeta
8/18/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Preliminary RoundDEVK-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UE Engordany31%
×Draw26%
Zeta42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Engordany
1.17
Zeta
1.40

Zeta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

UE Engordany
1.00
Zeta
1.00

allows per match

UE Engordany
1.80
Zeta
1.33

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par
Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

Zeta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw
58%
UE Engordany or Zeta
74%
Draw or Zeta
69%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+
13%
Zeta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals
69%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
33%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
11%
Zeta 1+ goals
75%
Zeta 2+ goals
41%
Zeta 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)
43%
Zeta (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Zeta away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 1.00 + Zeta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zeta attack 1.00 + UE Engordany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UE Engordany scores more
31%
level
26%
Zeta scores more
42%

Zeta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: UE Engordany 1–3 Zeta

Zeta beat UE Engordany 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 18, 2020.

The match was played at DEVK-Arena in Sant Julia de Loria.