Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UE Engordany vs UE Sant Julia — 1a Divisió 2019

UE Engordany
UE Engordany
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UE Sant Julia
UE Sant Julia
11/6/20221a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 8Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

UE Engordany39%
×Draw24%
UE Sant Julia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Engordany
1.57
UE Sant Julia
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 49 away

creates per match

UE Engordany
1.38
UE Sant Julia
1.29

allows per match

UE Engordany
1.74
UE Sant Julia
1.76

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par
UE Sant Julia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

UE Sant Julia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw
63%
UE Engordany or UE Sant Julia
76%
Draw or UE Sant Julia
61%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+
19%
UE Sant Julia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals
79%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
46%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
21%
UE Sant Julia 1+ goals
78%
UE Sant Julia 2+ goals
45%
UE Sant Julia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)
51%
UE Sant Julia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

UE Sant Julia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 1.38 + UE Sant Julia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

UE Sant Julia attack 1.29 + UE Engordany defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UE Engordany scores more
39%
level
24%
UE Sant Julia scores more
37%

UE Engordany at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisió: UE Engordany 4–0 UE Sant Julia

UE Engordany beat UE Sant Julia 4-0 in 1a Divisió on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.