UE Engordany 4–3 Penya Encarnada: Result & Stats

UE Engordany

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Penya Encarnada

5/9/2021

1a Divisió · Relegation Round - 4Camp de Futbol La Massana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

UE Engordany47%

×Draw23%

Penya Encarnada29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE EngordanyExpected goals in this matchPenya Encarnada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.36

UE Engordany

1.78

Penya Encarnada

1.36

UE Engordany creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

1.38

creates per match

0.98

1.74

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

UE Engordany

1.38

Penya Encarnada

0.98

allows per match

UE Engordany

1.74

Penya Encarnada

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

Penya Encarnada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw

71%

UE Engordany or Penya Encarnada

77%

Draw or Penya Encarnada

53%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+

26%

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals

83%

UE Engordany 2+ goals

53%

UE Engordany 3+ goals

26%

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

74%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

39%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)

62%

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 1.38 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Penya Encarnada attack 0.98 + UE Engordany defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UE Engordany scores more

47%

level

23%

Penya Encarnada scores more

29%

UE Engordany at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff