Penya Encarnada 0–3 UE Engordany: Result & Stats

Penya Encarnada

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

UE Engordany

1/23/2022

Copa Constitució · Quarter-finalsCamp de Futbol La Massana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Penya Encarnada7%

×Draw13%

UE Engordany80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Penya EncarnadaExpected goals in this matchUE Engordany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

2.79

Penya Encarnada

0.71

UE Engordany

2.79

UE Engordany creates 293% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

3.25

2.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Penya Encarnada

0.67

UE Engordany

3.25

allows per match

Penya Encarnada

2.33

UE Engordany

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

UE Engordany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Encarnada ↓

UE Engordany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Penya Encarnada or draw

20%

Penya Encarnada or UE Engordany

87%

Draw or UE Engordany

93%

Winning margin

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

2%

UE Engordany wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

51%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

16%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

4%

UE Engordany 1+ goals

94%

UE Engordany 2+ goals

76%

UE Engordany 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

8%

UE Engordany (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Encarnada at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

UE Engordany away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Encarnada attack 0.67 + UE Engordany defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

UE Engordany attack 3.25 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Penya Encarnada scores more

7%

level

13%

UE Engordany scores more

80%

UE Engordany at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff