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UE Engordany vs FC Santa Coloma — Copa Constitució 2019

UE Engordany
UE Engordany
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Santa Coloma
FC Santa Colomaadvanced
1/22/2023Copa ConstitucióCopa Constitució · Quarter-finalsCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UE Engordany46%
×Draw22%
FC Santa Coloma32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Engordany
1.98
FC Santa Coloma
1.62

UE Engordany creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

UE Engordany
3.67
FC Santa Coloma
1.57

allows per match

UE Engordany
1.67
FC Santa Coloma
0.29

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par
FC Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

FC Santa Coloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw
68%
UE Engordany or FC Santa Coloma
78%
Draw or FC Santa Coloma
54%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+
26%
FC Santa Coloma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals
86%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
59%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
31%
FC Santa Coloma 1+ goals
80%
FC Santa Coloma 2+ goals
48%
FC Santa Coloma 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)
59%
FC Santa Coloma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FC Santa Coloma away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 3.67 + FC Santa Coloma defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

FC Santa Coloma attack 1.57 + UE Engordany defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UE Engordany scores more
46%
level
22%
FC Santa Coloma scores more
32%

UE Engordany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UE Engordany vs FC Santa Coloma

FC Santa Coloma beat UE Engordany 3-0 in Copa Constitució on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.