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Udon United vs Uttaradit — FA Cup 2018

Udon United
Udon United
FT
3 – 0
Uttaradit
Uttaradit
9/11/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundUdon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Udon United64%
×Draw18%
Uttaradit18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon United
2.54
Uttaradit
1.31

Udon United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Udon United
2.80
Uttaradit
1.43

allows per match

Udon United
1.20
Uttaradit
2.29

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par
Uttaradit+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Uttaradit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Udon United or draw
82%
Udon United or Uttaradit
82%
Draw or Uttaradit
36%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+
42%
Uttaradit wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals
92%
Udon United 2+ goals
72%
Udon United 3+ goals
46%
Uttaradit 1+ goals
73%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
38%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)
78%
Uttaradit (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Uttaradit away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 2.80 + Uttaradit defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.54

Uttaradit attack 1.43 + Udon United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Udon United scores more
64%
level
18%
Uttaradit scores more
18%

Udon United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Udon United 3–0 Uttaradit

Udon United beat Uttaradit 3-0 in FA Cup on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.