Udon United 3–0 Surin Sugar: Result & Stats

Udon United

3 – 0

Surin Sugar

9/21/2022

League Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundUdon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Udon United78%

×Draw13%

Surin Sugar9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon UnitedExpected goals in this matchSurin Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.96

Udon United

3.00

Surin Sugar

0.96

Udon United creates 213% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

1.17

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Udon United

1.50

Surin Sugar

0.75

allows per match

Udon United

1.17

Surin Sugar

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par

Surin Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Surin Sugar →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Udon United or draw

91%

Udon United or Surin Sugar

87%

Draw or Surin Sugar

22%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+

58%

Surin Sugar wins by 2+

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals

95%

Udon United 2+ goals

79%

Udon United 3+ goals

56%

Surin Sugar 1+ goals

62%

Surin Sugar 2+ goals

25%

Surin Sugar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)

89%

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Surin Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 1.50 + Surin Sugar defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.00

Surin Sugar attack 0.75 + Udon United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Udon United scores more

78%

level

13%

Surin Sugar scores more

Udon United at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff