Udon United 4–3 Phitsanulok: Result & Stats

Udon United

4 – 3

Phitsanulok

9/30/2020

FA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Udon United58%

×Draw19%

Phitsanulok22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon UnitedExpected goals in this matchPhitsanulok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.44

Udon United

2.40

Phitsanulok

1.44

Udon United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.80

creates per match

1.67

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Udon United

2.80

Phitsanulok

1.67

allows per match

Udon United

1.20

Phitsanulok

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par

Phitsanulok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Phitsanulok →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Udon United or draw

78%

Udon United or Phitsanulok

81%

Draw or Phitsanulok

42%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+

37%

Phitsanulok wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals

91%

Udon United 2+ goals

69%

Udon United 3+ goals

42%

Phitsanulok 1+ goals

76%

Phitsanulok 2+ goals

42%

Phitsanulok 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)

72%

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Phitsanulok away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 2.80 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Phitsanulok attack 1.67 + Udon United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Udon United scores more

58%

level

19%

Phitsanulok scores more

22%

Udon United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff