Udon United 1–4 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Udon United

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Nong Bua Pitchaya

11/2/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundUdon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Udon United49%

×Draw21%

Nong Bua Pitchaya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon UnitedExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.69

Udon United

2.17

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.69

Udon United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.80

creates per match

2.18

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Udon United

2.80

Nong Bua Pitchaya

2.18

allows per match

Udon United

1.20

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Udon United or draw

70%

Udon United or Nong Bua Pitchaya

79%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

51%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+

29%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals

89%

Udon United 2+ goals

64%

Udon United 3+ goals

36%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

82%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

50%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)

62%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 2.80 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.17

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.18 + Udon United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Udon United scores more

49%

level

21%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

30%

Udon United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Udon United 1–4 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Udon United 4-1 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.

Udon United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Udon United 1–4 Nong Bua Pitchaya