Udon United 1–1 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Udon United

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Khon Kaen United

11/26/2025

League Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Udon United57%

×Draw21%

Khon Kaen United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon UnitedExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.19

Udon United

2.05

Khon Kaen United

1.19

Udon United creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Udon United

1.50

Khon Kaen United

1.20

allows per match

Udon United

1.17

Khon Kaen United

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Udon United or draw

78%

Udon United or Khon Kaen United

79%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

43%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+

34%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals

87%

Udon United 2+ goals

61%

Udon United 3+ goals

33%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

70%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

33%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)

72%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 1.50 + Khon Kaen United defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Khon Kaen United attack 1.20 + Udon United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Udon United scores more

57%

level

21%

Khon Kaen United scores more

22%

Udon United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff