Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Udon United vs Kasetsart FC — League Cup 2021

Udon United
Udon United
FT
0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/2/2024League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsUdon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Udon United30%
×Draw29%
Kasetsart FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon United
1.00
Kasetsart FC
1.21

Kasetsart FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Udon United
1.50
Kasetsart FC
1.25

allows per match

Udon United
1.17
Kasetsart FC
0.50

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Udon United or draw
59%
Udon United or Kasetsart FC
71%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
70%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+
11%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals
63%
Udon United 2+ goals
26%
Udon United 3+ goals
8%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
70%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
34%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)
43%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 1.50 + Kasetsart FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kasetsart FC attack 1.25 + Udon United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Udon United scores more
30%
level
29%
Kasetsart FC scores more
41%

Kasetsart FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udon United vs Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Udon United 1-0 in League Cup on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.