Udon United 2–4 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Udon United

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Buriram United

12/6/2023

League Cup · 1st RoundUdon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Udon United16%

×Draw20%

Buriram United64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon UnitedExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

2.08

Udon United

0.91

Buriram United

2.08

Buriram United creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

1.17

allows per match

0.31

creates per match

Udon United

1.50

Buriram United

3.00

allows per match

Udon United

1.17

Buriram United

0.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon United+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon United ↓

Buriram United →

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Udon United or draw

36%

Udon United or Buriram United

80%

Draw or Buriram United

84%

Winning margin

Udon United wins by 2+

Buriram United wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Udon United 1+ goals

60%

Udon United 2+ goals

23%

Udon United 3+ goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

87%

Buriram United 2+ goals

61%

Buriram United 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Udon United (draw refunded)

20%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Udon United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Buriram United away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Udon United attack 1.50 + Buriram United defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Buriram United attack 3.00 + Udon United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Udon United scores more

16%

level

20%

Buriram United scores more

64%

Buriram United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff