Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Udon Thani vs Thai Honda FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
4 – 4
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
10/19/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Udon Thani42%
×Draw26%
Thai Honda FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.45
Thai Honda FC
1.25

Udon Thani creates 16% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 31 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Thai Honda FC
1.16

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Thai Honda FC
1.52

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
67%
Udon Thani or Thai Honda FC
74%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
58%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
20%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
77%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
42%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
18%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
71%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
36%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
56%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Thai Honda FC attack 1.16 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udon Thani scores more
42%
level
26%
Thai Honda FC scores more
33%

Udon Thani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udon Thani vs Thai Honda FC

Udon Thani and Thai Honda FC drew 4-4 in Thai League 2 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).