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Udon Thani vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
3 – 2
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
6/15/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Udon Thani58%
×Draw21%
Samut Sakhon FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
2.02
Samut Sakhon FC
1.14

Udon Thani creates 77% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 48 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
79%
Udon Thani or Samut Sakhon FC
79%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
42%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
34%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
87%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
60%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
33%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
68%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
32%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
73%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Udon Thani scores more
58%
level
21%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
21%

Udon Thani at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 3–2 Samut Sakhon FC

Udon Thani beat Samut Sakhon FC 3-2 in Thai League 2 on June 15, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).