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Udon Thani vs Phrae United — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
0 – 2
Phrae United
Phrae United
2/10/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 20Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Udon Thani39%
×Draw26%
Phrae United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.39
Phrae United
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 106 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Phrae United
1.24

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Phrae United
1.41

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Phrae United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
65%
Udon Thani or Phrae United
74%
Draw or Phrae United
61%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
18%
Phrae United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
75%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
40%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
16%
Phrae United 1+ goals
72%
Phrae United 2+ goals
37%
Phrae United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
53%
Phrae United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udon Thani scores more
39%
level
26%
Phrae United scores more
35%

Udon Thani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 0–2 Phrae United

Phrae United beat Udon Thani 2-0 in Thai League 2 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.