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Udon Thani vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
1 – 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4/27/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Udon Thani36%
×Draw26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.34
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 70 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.44

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.31

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
61%
Udon Thani or Nong Bua Pitchaya
74%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
64%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
16%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
74%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
39%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
15%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
75%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
41%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
48%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.44 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udon Thani scores more
36%
level
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
39%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 1–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Udon Thani 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).