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Udon Thani vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
2/4/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Udon Thani52%
×Draw23%
Krabi FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.79
Krabi FC
1.15

Udon Thani creates 56% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 48 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
76%
Udon Thani or Krabi FC
77%
Draw or Krabi FC
48%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
29%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
83%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
53%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
26%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
68%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
32%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
68%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Udon Thani scores more
52%
level
23%
Krabi FC scores more
24%

Udon Thani at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 0–7 Krabi FC

Krabi FC beat Udon Thani 7-0 in Thai League 2 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.