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Udon Thani vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/1/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Udon Thani49%
×Draw25%
Kasetsart FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.61
Kasetsart FC
1.11

Udon Thani creates 45% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 132 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
74%
Udon Thani or Kasetsart FC
75%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
51%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
26%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
80%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
48%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
22%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
67%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
30%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
65%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Udon Thani scores more
49%
level
25%
Kasetsart FC scores more
26%

Udon Thani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 3–1 Kasetsart FC

Udon Thani beat Kasetsart FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.