Udon Thani 2–1 Chiangmai United: Result & Stats

Udon Thani

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chiangmai United

3/4/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 26Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Udon Thani40%

×Draw26%

Chiangmai United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon ThaniExpected goals in this matchChiangmai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Udon Thani

1.38

Chiangmai United

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 103 away

1.37

creates per match

1.19

1.35

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Udon Thani

1.37

Chiangmai United

1.19

allows per match

Udon Thani

1.35

Chiangmai United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Chiangmai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw

66%

Udon Thani or Chiangmai United

74%

Draw or Chiangmai United

60%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+

18%

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals

75%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

40%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

16%

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

72%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

36%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

53%

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udon Thani scores more

40%

level

26%

Chiangmai United scores more

34%

Udon Thani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff