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Udinese vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Udinese
Udinese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
11/10/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 12Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Udinese46%
×Draw26%
Spal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.44
Spal
1.06

Udinese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 38 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.13
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Udinese
1.20
Spal
1.76

finishing

Udinese+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
72%
Udinese or Spal
74%
Draw or Spal
54%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
22%
Spal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
76%
Udinese 2+ goals
42%
Udinese 3+ goals
18%
Spal 1+ goals
65%
Spal 2+ goals
29%
Spal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
62%
Spal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 138 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spal attack 0.92 + Udinese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Udinese scores more
46%
level
26%
Spal scores more
28%

Udinese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Udinese 0–0 Spal

Udinese and Spal drew 0-0 in Serie A on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.