Udinese 1–3 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Parma

Kevin Lasagna 17'

Roberto Inglese 75'

Riccardo Gagliolo 59'

Gervinho 43'

9/1/2019

Serie A · Round 2Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Udinese45%

×Draw28%

Parma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.99

Udinese

1.34

Parma

0.99

Udinese creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

0.80

1.18

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Parma

1.60

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

72%

Udinese or Parma

72%

Draw or Parma

55%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

21%

Parma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

74%

Udinese 2+ goals

39%

Udinese 3+ goals

15%

Parma 1+ goals

63%

Parma 2+ goals

26%

Parma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

62%

Parma (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Parma attack 0.80 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Udinese scores more

45%

level

28%

Parma scores more

28%

Udinese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Luigi Sepe

Parma · G

8.3

Match Events

6'

Alberto Grassi

17'

Kevin Lasagna

43'

Gervinho↳ Dejan Kulusevski

55'

Seko Fofana← Rolando Mandragora

59'

Riccardo Gagliolo↳ Dejan Kulusevski

64'

Juraj Kucka← Alberto Grassi

70'

Ignacio Pussetto← Ilija Nestorovski

71'

Giuseppe Pezzella← Vincent Laurini

75'

Roberto Inglese↳ Gervinho

78'

Łukasz Teodorczyk← Jens Stryger Larsen

81'

Antonino Barillà

82'

Andreas Cornelius← Roberto Inglese

86'

Hernani

90'

Łukasz Teodorczyk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseParma

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots8

8Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots8

11On Target3

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

16Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

475Total Passes461

404Accurate Passes375

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Udinese vs Parma

Parma beat Udinese 3-1 in Serie A on September 1, 2019.

Goals: Kevin Lasagna (17'), Gervinho (43'), Riccardo Gagliolo (59'), Roberto Inglese (75').

Udinese controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Parma