Parma 2–2 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Udinese

J. Kucka 32' (pen)

A. Cornelius 3'

B. Nuytinck 80'

S. Okaka 64'

2/21/2021

Serie A · Round 23Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma36%

×Draw27%

Udinese38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Parma

1.27

Udinese

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

0.98

creates per match

1.09

1.52

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Parma

0.98

Udinese

1.09

allows per match

Parma

1.52

Udinese

1.56

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Parma-0.02on par

Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw

62%

Parma or Udinese

73%

Draw or Udinese

64%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

16%

Udinese wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

72%

Parma 2+ goals

36%

Parma 3+ goals

14%

Udinese 1+ goals

73%

Udinese 2+ goals

38%

Udinese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

49%

Udinese (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Udinese attack 1.09 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Parma scores more

36%

level

27%

Udinese scores more

38%

Udinese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Cornelius

Parma · F

7.6

Match Events

3'

A. Cornelius↳ G. Pezzella

9'

19'

25'

29'

32'

J. KuckaPenalty

36'

Valentin Mihăilă

36'

Juan Musso

46'

N. Molina← Rodrigo Becão

46'

I. Nestorovski← Walace

59'

60'

64'

66'

67'

67'

T. Ouwejan← M. Zeegelaar

70'

W. Cyprien← G. Brugman

79'

Andrea Conti

79'

V. Laurini← G. Pezzella

79'

Bruno Alves← V. Mihăilă

80'

B. Nuytinck↳ T. Ouwejan

81'

Rodrigo De Paul

83'

Dennis Man

88'

J. Makengo← T. Arslan

90'

Roberto Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaUdinese

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots14

3Corners2

18Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots14

5On Target3

6Off Target9

5Blocked2

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

397Total Passes443

335Accurate Passes389

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls15

7Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Parma 2 – 2 Udinese

Parma and Udinese drew 2-2 in Serie A on February 21, 2021.

Goals: A. Cornelius (3'), J. Kucka (32' pen), S. Okaka (64'), B. Nuytinck (80').

Udinese controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.

Parma vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Parma 2 – 2 Udinese