Udinese 2–2 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Monza

Beto 90+2' (pen)

S. Lovrić 18'

N. Rovella 56'

A. Colpani 48'

4/8/2023

Serie A · Round 29Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Udinese40%

×Draw27%

Monza34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Udinese

1.33

Monza

1.20

Udinese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 6 away

1.09

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Monza

1.23

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Monza

1.57

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

66%

Udinese or Monza

73%

Draw or Monza

60%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

18%

Monza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

74%

Udinese 2+ goals

38%

Udinese 3+ goals

15%

Monza 1+ goals

70%

Monza 2+ goals

34%

Monza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

54%

Monza (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Monza attack 1.23 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udinese scores more

40%

level

27%

Monza scores more

34%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Colpani

Monza · F

7.7

Match Events

18'

S. Lovrić↳ Walace

26'

Armando Izzo

48'

A. Colpani↳ Carlos Augusto

55'

Valentin Antov

56'

N. Rovella↳ S. Sensi

60'

A. Petagna← S. Sensi

60'

L. Caldirola← V. Antov

67'

S. Birindelli← A. Colpani

68'

F. Ebosele← K. Ehizibue

68'

S. Pafundi← L. Samardžić

76'

Nehuén Pérez

80'

T. Arslan← S. Lovrić

80'

José Machín← M. Valoti

80'

A. Barberis← N. Rovella

83'

I. Nestorovski← I. Success

83'

F. Thauvin← N. Pérez

90+9'

Andrea Petagna

90+2'

BetoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseMonza

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots12

1.77Expected Goals (xG)1.06

4Corners2

12Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target5

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

374Total Passes569

323Accurate Passes503

86%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Monza

Udinese and Monza drew 2-2 in Serie A on April 8, 2023.

Goals: S. Lovrić (18'), A. Colpani (48'), N. Rovella (56'), Beto (90+2' pen).

Monza controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Monza