Udinese 1–2 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lazio

B. Nuytinck 80'

J. Correa 66'

F. Acerbi 61'

9/26/2018

Serie A · Round 6Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Udinese37%

×Draw28%

Lazio34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.14

Udinese

1.20

Lazio

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.08

creates per match

1.09

1.18

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Lazio

1.09

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Lazio

1.31

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

66%

Udinese or Lazio

72%

Draw or Lazio

63%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

16%

Lazio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

70%

Udinese 2+ goals

34%

Udinese 3+ goals

12%

Lazio 1+ goals

68%

Lazio 2+ goals

32%

Lazio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

52%

Lazio (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lazio attack 1.09 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Udinese scores more

37%

level

28%

Lazio scores more

34%

Udinese at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Fofana

Udinese · M

7.7

Match Events

42'

Senad Lulić

56'

R. Durmisi← S. Lulić

56'

C. Immobile← F. Caicedo

61'

F. Acerbi

66'

J. Correa↳ R. Durmisi

67'

I. Pussetto← D. Machís

73'

Ł. Teodorczyk← A. Barák

75'

Bastos← Luiz Felipe

80'

Ciro Immobile

80'

B. Nuytinck↳ R. de Paul

85'

Ignacio Pussetto

85'

Milan Badelj

86'

Bastos

86'

Felipe Vizeu← K. Lasagna

89'

Riza Durmisi

90'

William Troost-Ekong

90'

Thomas Strakosha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseLazio

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots10

6Corners4

9Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target2

6Off Target3

1Blocked5

5Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

475Total Passes456

380Accurate Passes379

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Udinese 1 – 2 Lazio

Lazio beat Udinese 2-1 in Serie A on September 26, 2018.

Goals: F. Acerbi (61'), J. Correa (66'), B. Nuytinck (80').

Udinese controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Udinese 1 – 2 Lazio