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Lazio vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Udinese
Udinese
3/10/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio44%
×Draw26%
Udinese31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.47
Udinese
1.19

Lazio creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Udinese
1.56

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
69%
Lazio or Udinese
74%
Draw or Udinese
56%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
21%
Udinese wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
77%
Lazio 2+ goals
43%
Lazio 3+ goals
18%
Udinese 1+ goals
70%
Udinese 2+ goals
33%
Udinese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
59%
Udinese (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Udinese attack 1.09 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lazio scores more
44%
level
26%
Udinese scores more
31%

Lazio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lazio 1 – 1 Udinese

Lazio and Udinese drew 1-1 in Serie A on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.