Udinese 0–1 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter

L. Martinez 20'

1/17/2026

Serie A · Round 21Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese28%

×Draw26%

Inter46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.46

Udinese

1.08

Inter

1.46

Inter creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

1.09

creates per match

1.74

1.17

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Inter

1.74

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Inter

1.06

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Inter+0.46scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

54%

Udinese or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

72%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

11%

Inter wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

66%

Udinese 2+ goals

29%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

Inter 1+ goals

77%

Inter 2+ goals

43%

Inter 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

38%

Inter (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Inter away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.06 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Inter defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Inter attack 1.74 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Udinese scores more

28%

level

26%

Inter scores more

46%

Inter at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Martinez↳ F. Esposito

45'

L. Miller← J. Piotrowski

67'

A. Bonny← F. Esposito

70'

Carlos Augusto

75'

I. Gueye← A. Atta

75'

N. Bertola← C. Kabasele

75'

K. Ehizibue← A. Zanoli

77'

F. Acerbi← Carlos Augusto

77'

D. Frattesi← H. Mkhitaryan

84'

V. Bayo← J. Ekkelenkamp

88'

S. de Vrij← L. Martinez

88'

P. Sucic← P. Zielinski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseInter

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots14

0.22Expected Goals (xG)1.59

2Corners5

17Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots14

1On Target5

2Off Target5

2Blocked4

2Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

371Total Passes616

302Accurate Passes537

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

17Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Serie A: Udinese 0–1 Inter

Inter beat Udinese 1-0 in Serie A on January 17, 2026.

Goals: L. Martinez (20').

Inter controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Udine.

Udinese vs Inter — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 0–1 Inter