Udinese 3–1 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Inter

T. Arslan 90+3'

J. Bijol 84'

M. Škriniar 22' (OG)

N. Barella 5'

9/18/2022

Serie A · Round 7Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese30%

×Draw27%

Inter44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.39

Udinese

1.10

Inter

1.39

Inter creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

1.59

1.18

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Inter

1.59

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Inter

1.11

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Inter+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

56%

Udinese or Inter

73%

Draw or Inter

70%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

12%

Inter wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

67%

Udinese 2+ goals

30%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

Inter 1+ goals

75%

Inter 2+ goals

40%

Inter 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

41%

Inter (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Inter away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.11 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Inter defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Inter attack 1.59 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Udinese scores more

30%

level

27%

Inter scores more

44%

Inter at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Deulofeu

Udinese · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

N. Barella

13'

Alessandro Bastoni

21'

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

22'

M. ŠkriniarOwn goal

30'

R. Gagliardini← H. Mkhitaryan

31'

F. Dimarco← A. Bastoni

39'

45+1'

51'

56'

57'

61'

L. Samardžić← J. Makengo

67'

J. Correa← E. Džeko

67'

D. D'Ambrosio← M. Darmian

69'

I. Success← Beto

69'

K. Ehizibue← R. Pereyra

79'

T. Arslan← S. Lovrić

79'

S. de Vrij← F. Acerbi

80'

E. Ebosse← D. Udogie

84'

J. Bijol↳ Deulofeu

90+3'

T. Arslan↳ Deulofeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseInter

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots16

7Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots16

6On Target4

5Off Target9

9Blocked3

11Inside Box8

9Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

333Total Passes421

251Accurate Passes336

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Serie A: Udinese 3–1 Inter

Udinese beat Inter 3-1 in Serie A on September 18, 2022.

Goals: N. Barella (5'), M. Škriniar (22' o.g.), J. Bijol (84'), T. Arslan (90+3').

Inter controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 20.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 3–1 Inter