Udinese 1–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hellas Verona

1/30/2023

Serie A · Round 20Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Udinese43%

×Draw27%

Hellas Verona30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Udinese

1.36

Hellas Verona

1.10

Udinese creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

1.09

creates per match

1.04

1.17

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Hellas Verona

1.04

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Hellas Verona

1.64

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

70%

Udinese or Hellas Verona

73%

Draw or Hellas Verona

57%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

20%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

74%

Udinese 2+ goals

39%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

67%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

30%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

59%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Udinese scores more

43%

level

27%

Hellas Verona scores more

30%

Udinese at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff