Udinese 0–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fiorentina

D. Vlahović 16' (pen)

9/26/2021

Serie A · Round 6Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Udinese39%

×Draw27%

Fiorentina34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Udinese

1.30

Fiorentina

1.18

Udinese creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

1.13

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Fiorentina

1.12

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Fiorentina

1.47

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

66%

Udinese or Fiorentina

73%

Draw or Fiorentina

61%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

18%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

73%

Udinese 2+ goals

37%

Udinese 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

69%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

33%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

54%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.12 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udinese scores more

39%

level

27%

Fiorentina scores more

34%

Udinese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

69

B. Drągowski

Fiorentina · G

8.0

Match Events

16'

D. VlahovićPenalty

17'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

45+2'

Tolgay Arslan

46'

I. Pussetto← B. Soppy

46'

J. Makengo← T. Arslan

53'

Walace

60'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

65'

S. Amrabat← G. Bonaventura

65'

Y. Maleh← A. Duncan

66'

M. Nastasić← L. Martínez

70'

Sofyan Amrabat

71'

N. Molina← J. Stryger Larsen

71'

D. Udogie← B. Nuytinck

81'

L. Samardžić← Walace

83'

Igor← L. Torreira

90+5'

Álvaro Odriozola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseFiorentina

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots8

4Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target2

4Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

472Total Passes573

404Accurate Passes495

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

Serie A: Udinese 0–1 Fiorentina

Fiorentina beat Udinese 1-0 in Serie A on September 26, 2021.

Goals: D. Vlahović (16' pen).

Fiorentina controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 0–1 Fiorentina