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Fiorentina vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
5/14/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina50%
×Draw25%
Udinese25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.63
Udinese
1.08

Fiorentina creates 51% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.08
Udinese
1.56

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
75%
Fiorentina or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
26%
Udinese wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
80%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
48%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
22%
Udinese 1+ goals
66%
Udinese 2+ goals
29%
Udinese 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
67%
Udinese (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Udinese attack 1.09 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina scores more
50%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
25%

Fiorentina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Udinese

Fiorentina beat Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.