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Udinese vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Udinese
Udinese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
3/8/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 26Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese40%
×Draw27%
Fiorentina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.30
Fiorentina
1.17

Udinese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.13
Fiorentina
1.10

allows per match

Udinese
1.23
Fiorentina
1.47

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less
Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
67%
Udinese or Fiorentina
73%
Draw or Fiorentina
60%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
18%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
73%
Udinese 2+ goals
37%
Udinese 3+ goals
14%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
69%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
33%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
54%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.10 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udinese scores more
40%
level
27%
Fiorentina scores more
33%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Juan MussoUdineseUdinese · G
7.9

Match Events

18'
Ilija Nestorovski
62'
Kevin Lasagna← Ilija Nestorovski
71'
Seko Fofana← Mato Jajalo
72'
Patrick Cutrone← Igor Júlio
77'
Ken Sema
82'
Marvin Zeegelaar← Ken Sema
87'
Erick Pulgar← Milan Badelj

Possession

43%Udinese

Shots

14Udinese

Pass accuracy

49%Udinese

Statistics

UdineseFiorentina
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots9
6Corners9
8Fouls5
Shots
14Total Shots9
2On Target4
8Off Target4
4Blocked1
6Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
384Total Passes508
314Accurate Passes429
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls5
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Udinese vs Fiorentina

Udinese and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in Serie A on March 8, 2020.

Fiorentina controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.